terça-feira, 22 de novembro de 2011

Where is future growth in GDP going to come from? THE GROWTH CONUNDRUM

Most forecasts for the world economy, world energy supply and demand, climate change and the economy and so on assume that economic growth will march on.  The Stern report on climate change and the economy said it would “not be unreasonable” to assume the world economy will grow by 2% to 3% annually this century, based on historical growth.  So, what does this growth look like?

The first graph at the top of the page shows the projection of Gross World Product to 2100 at 2% or 3% annual growth, with 2009 indicated.  The second graph shows world ecological footprint: we started using up the biocapacity of the planet faster than it can regenerate by the 1980s. But footprint and GDP (or GWP) correlate very closely: the bigger GDP is, the more energy and material we put through the economy - for food, transportation, the amenities of home and workplace, basically everything we consume.  We’re getting more efficient, but not fast enough.

The top graph to the right shows growth in GDP up to 2009 - a sharply rising exponential growth curve.  In the past 50 years, growth in GWP has averaged about 4% per year.  The last graph shows what this growth has done to the biosphere and how clearly economic growth correlates with exponential increase in human use of natural resources - paper consumption, fish consumption, use of freshwater and soil resources, extinction of species, fertilizer use, and so on (thank you Gus Speth!!). 

So, if the economy is going to go from $61 trillion in GWP in 2009 to somewhere between $450 and $1100 trillion in GWP in 2100, what kind of energy and material throughput are we talking about?  What kind of ecological footprint, if we are already overconsuming the Earth by 20%?  For anyone who thinks runaway banks and credit derivative swaps are the major problem facing the world (and that kind of financial shenaniganism is a HUGE problem, yes), take a close look at these graphs.  They tell the story of the real long-term crisis we are facing.

For a PDF with these graphs, click here:  Growth presentation PDF.pdf

domingo, 20 de novembro de 2011

The Future of Money : New Lenses of Wealth

http://www.emergence.cc/wp-content/files/FOM_infographic_1280x1811.png

Click the above image to open a 1280px x 1811px PNG file in a new window.
2010 BY-NC-SA Emergence Collective
Research and concept by Gabriel Shalom, Venessa Miemis and Jay Cousins.
Design by Patrizia Kommerell.

After several months of research and graphic design we’re happy to present you with our infographic The Future of Money: New Lenses of Wealth. It represents the aggregation of our research on emerging marketplaces, platforms, tools, initiatives and opportunities for the new economy.

quarta-feira, 9 de novembro de 2011

The network that runs the world

http://makewealthhistory.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/network.jpg

This image shows the connections between the 1,318 biggest companies in the world, mapped according to share ownership out of an original 43,000 companies. At the core are 147 super-connected companies, the ones in red. That group, less than one percent of the whole, effectively controls 40% of global revenue. No prizes for guessing which sector dominates that core group. At the top of the tree is Barclays, with JP Morgan Chase, UBS and Merrill Lynch all in the top ten.

This, says the New Scientist, gives credence to the Occupy movement’s claim that the world is run for the benefit of the richest one percent. According to this particular exercise in systems theory, that’s entirely correct.

If you want to check out the methodology, the study is online here (pdf).

quarta-feira, 2 de novembro de 2011

Robert Biel : The Entropy of Capitalism

http://www.brill.nl/entropy-capitalism
The project of applying general systems theory to social sciences is crucial in today’s crisis when social and ecological systems clash. This book concretely demonstrates the necessity of a Marxist approach to this challenge, notably in asserting agency (struggle) as against determinism. It similarly shows how Marxism can be reinvigorated from a systems perspective. Drawing on his experience in both international systems and low-input agriculture, Biel explores the interaction of social and physical systems, using the conceptual tools of thermodynamics and information. He reveals the early twenty-first century as a period when capitalism starts parasitising on the chaos it itself creates, notably in the link between the two sides of imperialism: militarism (the ‘war on terror’) and speculative finance capital.

terça-feira, 1 de novembro de 2011

Life Rules: Why so much is going wrong everywhere at once & how Life teaches us to fix it.

http://www.ellenlaconte.com/life-rules-the-book/

Economic and polar meltdowns, inept, corrupt and bankrupt governments, long-term double-digit unemployment, climate instability, failing social services, collapsing ecosystems, a widening wealth-poverty gap, unprecedented species extinctions, mass migrations, peak fossil fuels, religious, ethnic and resource wars, spreading hunger, poverty, chaos and disease. . .

Why is so much going wrong everywhere at once?
The global economy has gone viral. It is ravaging Earth’s immune system, triggering a Critical Mass of mutually reinforcing environmental, economic, social, cultural and political crises that are compromising the ability of Earth’s human and natural communities to provide for, protect and heal themselves.

The prognosis? If we keep doing what we’ve been doing, Life will last but Life as we know it—and a lot of us—won’t.

What should we do instead? We should remember that Life rules, we don’t. The global economy operates as if it were larger than Life. It isn’t. As if it had multiple Earth’s to supply its appetites. It doesn’t. Life learned how to deal with global economies two billion years ago: It put them out of business. It encoded in other-than-human species an adaptable protocol of economic rules that help them to avoid causing Critical Mass and survive Critical Mass when it occurs naturally.

What are those rules? Among the rules written into Life’s Economic Survival Protocol are local self-reliance, intercommunity and regional functional cooperation, non-carbon energy sourcing, resource conservation, sharing and recycling, and organically democratic methods of self-organization and governance. These rules have worked for Life for two billion years. We can make them work for us, too.

How? We can learn Life’s rules and adopt lifeways that mimic Life’s ways.

Take back your future! A tool for community transition and cultural and personal transformation, Life Rules offers a clear and compelling context for understanding our global crisis and a treatment plan for Critical Mass that is at once authentically conserve-ative, deeply green and profoundly liberating.

With Forewords by John Robbins, Diet for A New America and The New Good Life & John Rensenbrink, publisher of Green Horizon Magazine AND an Afterword by August Jaccaci, General Periodicity: Nature’s Creative Dynamics

Invitation to the International Conference on Degrowth in the Americas, Montreal 2012

http://montreal.degrowth.org/
Dear friends,

We are pleased to invite proposals for workshops, panels, papers, posters, artistic presentations, symposia and special sessions for the Montreal International Conference on Degrowth in the Americas from May 13-19, 2012.

A voice is rising among those who are deeply concerned with global environmental degradation and escalating poverty and inequality. A root of the problem lies in an unrelenting priority given to economic growth. Degrowth is a new social and economic paradigm that challenges the growth–driven economic model on which existing policies are based. To build on the emergent international discussion on degrowth, the Montreal International Conference on Degrowth in the Americas will articulate the needs and aspirations of the Americas for a post-growth, more equitable and better world.

Nineteen years after the Earth Summit in Rio the growth-driven “sustainable development discourse” has failed. It has not offered a convincing solution to one of the most dramatic crises in history: how to avert ecological collapse while enhancing social justice. A degrowth perspective will help us visualize and build towards a post-growth world.

Drawing from previous degrowth conferences in Paris and Barcelona, the Montreal conference, a co-operative effort of four Montreal Universities, will focus on the particular situations and dynamics of the Americas. What does degrowth mean for our Hemisphere with its rich geographical, cultural, social and economic diversity? How can degrowth models apply to different contexts from the Arctic to Tierra del Fuego? What does degrowth mean for the indigenous peoples of the Americas and their aspirations for their lands and peoples?

In the spirit of seeking alternative societies, the conference will bring together a diversity of social actors to share a deeper understanding of the degrowth paradigm, and build networks and relationships over six days. It will also include a convivial degrowth fair, with exhibits, art/video/cultural events, opportunities for international participants to exchange beyond that possible in most formal academic conferences. Tours and interaction with Montreal, Quebec and regional social movements and local, alternative food, housing and cooperative experiences are planned. Every effort is being made to reduce the ecological footprint of the event and to maximize its benefits in relation to the ecological and carbon impacts of traditional travel and research activities. Trilingual translation will be available for larger sessions and a cadre of volunteer personal translators for French, Spanish and English speakers is being recruited.

For more information, please visit our website at: http://montreal.degrowth.org/

Our proposal guidelines can be viewed at: http://montreal.degrowth.org/downloads/call_for_proposals.pdf
Our proposal submission form can be viewed at: http://montreal.degrowth.org/call_form.html

We look forward to your participation.

Yves-Marie Abraham, HEC, Université de Montréal
Julie Anne Ames, McGill University
Peter G Brown, McGill University
Chantal Forgues, David O’Brien Centre for Sustainable Enterprise, Concordia University
Nicolas Kosoy, McGill University
Olga Navarro-Flores, UQAM
Hervé Phillipe, Université de Montréal
François Schneider, Research & Degrowth, Autonomous University of Barcelona
Shannon Scott, McGill School of Environment, McGill University
Paul Shrivastava, David O’Brien Centre for Sustainable Enterprise, Concordia University
Bob Thomson, Ottawa

Source: http://peakoil.com/generalideas/invitation-to-the-international-conference-on-degrowth-in-the-americas-montreal-2012/